What growth is priced into AMZN? A reverse DCF

If AMZN's revenue grows 18.9% a year for five years, then slows over years 6–10, at today's 13.9% operating margin, its value discounted at 9% equals today's price.

Last reported year-on-year revenue growth: 12.1%

How often companies this size have done it

Of US-listed companies with $50B+ of revenue in 2019, 1.0% grew revenue 18.9% a year or more over the next 5 years (60 companies, SEC filings).

Half of companies this size grew less than 5.6% a year. Only companies still filing are counted and acquisitions count as growth, so the true rate is likely lower.

The discount rate is a choice, not a measurement

The headline uses the 10-year Treasury (4%) plus 5%. Require a different return, and the growth the price implies changes:

What went in