What growth is priced into LLY? A reverse DCF
ELI LILLY & Co · $1364.73 · as of 2026-11-06
If LLY's revenue grows 13.6% a year for five years, then slows over years 6–10, at today's 53.7% operating margin, its value discounted at 9% equals today's price.
Last reported year-on-year revenue growth: 38.6%
How often companies this size have done it
Of US-listed companies with $50B+ of revenue in 2019, 10% grew revenue 13.6% a year or more over the next 5 years (60 companies, SEC filings).
Half of companies this size grew less than 5.6% a year. Only companies still filing are counted and acquisitions count as growth, so the true rate is likely lower.
The discount rate is a choice, not a measurement
The headline uses the 10-year Treasury (4%) plus 5%. Require a different return, and the growth the price implies changes:
What went in
This page describes what today's price is consistent with. It does not say whether the stock is cheap or expensive, and it is not investment advice. TreasureX is educational software.