TreasureX Researchbis.wpWhen a Strait Sneezes: Hormuz Disruption and the Global Economy
Enisse Kharroubi · September 17, 2026
A new BIS working paper by Enisse Kharroubi looks at what happens to the world economy when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. The strait is one of the planet's most important maritime chokepoints — a narrow passage through which a large share of global oil and gas exports must travel. Using historical vessel-tracking data from the IMF/University of Oxford PortWatch database, the paper measures how past interruptions in traffic through Hormuz rippled through economic activity and financial markets.
The key idea is that chokepoints act as single points of failure. When traffic slows or stops, the effects are not limited to energy prices: shipping costs, insurance premiums, delivery times and inflation expectations can all shift, and those shifts feed into growth and asset prices. Because the data is granular, the study can compare how different types of disruption — conflict, blockade, accident — transmit differently.
Why it matters: investors often treat geopolitical shocks as short-lived noise. This work suggests chokepoint disruptions leave measurable traces in the real economy and markets, which argues for stress-testing portfolios against supply-route risk rather than only demand shocks. For energy importers, the practical implication is higher input costs and renewed inflation pressure; for shipping, insurance and commodity traders, it means wider risk premia. Economically, the finding supports diversifying trade routes and holding strategic reserves — resilience has a price, but so does complacency.
Source: Bank for International Settlements working paper. Read the original: https://www.bis.org/publications/working-paper-1378-maritime-chokepoints-and-the-global-economy-evidence-strait-hormuz
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