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$ASML$1356.65 ▼9.3%
ASML Holding N.V.
WHAT THEY DO
ASML is the world's sole maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, the multi-hundred-million-dollar tools that print the tiniest circuits on advanced chips. It also sells deep-ultraviolet (DUV) systems, metrology and inspection gear, and software, earning most revenue from selling and servicing these machines to chipmakers like TSMC, Samsung, Intel and Micron.
💎 CONVERGENCE PLAY — in 3 themes
Edge AISemiconductor CapexAdvanced Packaging
PRICE
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REVENUE MIX
EUV Lithography Systems48%
DUV & Other Systems30%
Installed Base Management (Service/Field Options)22%
COST
COGS47%
R&D13%
SG&A3%
Op Margin44%
FINANCIAL HEALTH
Reported through Sep 27, 2026
Figures are trailing twelve months (TTM) unless marked otherwise.
REVENUE
$44.0B
Growth
55%
QTR YOY
Gross M.
54%
P/E
33.4
EV/EBITDA
0
Net M.
34%
FCF M.
26%
D/E
0.19
LATEST QTR
Op M.
44%
PLUG INTO YOUR DCF
Historical growth
18.5%
Analyst 5y growth
—
Forward P/E
21.4
PEG ratio
0.80
Trailing EPS
$40.60
Forward EPS
$63.40
Multiple compressing
Forward P/E is lower than trailing — earnings are expected to grow into the price.
CAPEX & R&D — LAST 0 FISCAL YEARS (SEC FILINGS)
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TAM
SIZE
$150B by 2030
CAGR
8%
The semiconductor lithography equipment and services market is roughly $100B today and could reach ~$150B by 2030 as AI-driven leading-edge logic and HBM memory capacity expands. EUV and High-NA EUV intensity per wafer rises with each node, so ASML's addressable value grows faster than unit volumes.
RISK ASSESSMENT
HIGExport controls: US/Dutch restrictions on EUV and advanced DUV shipments to China could cut a meaningful slice of revenue and limit future growth.
MEDCustomer concentration and cyclicality: a handful of foundry/logic/memory buyers drive orders, so a capex pause at TSMC, Samsung or Intel hits backlog fast.
LOWHigh-NA EUV adoption pace: if chipmakers delay the expensive next-gen tool, the upgrade cycle stretches out.
🐂 BULL
ASML is a legal monopoly on EUV, the single most critical tool for AI chips, with a growing service annuity and High-NA EUV extending its lead for a decade.
🐻 BEAR
At 56x earnings and a nosebleed EV/EBITDA, the stock already prices in flawless AI capex growth, leaving little cushion if China restrictions tighten or a foundry capex pause hits orders.
EARNINGS
EPS · Q3 2026
Beat ✓
REVENUE
Beat ✓
MANAGEMENT TONE
BearishBullish
🔗 IMPACT ON YOUR THESIS
EUV monopoly and High-NA upgrade cycle
On Track→On Track
High-NA bookings and EUV backlog remained firm, reinforcing the upgrade runway.
AI-driven leading-edge logic and HBM demand
On Track→On Track
Management cited continued AI-related demand for leading-edge logic and memory capacity.
China export-control exposure
Watch→Watch
China revenue mix stayed under pressure from restrictions; guidance kept a cautious tone.
Valuation vs. cyclical capex risk
Watch→Watch
Strong results but rich multiple keeps valuation risk in focus.
AI-powered data, computed by TreasureX · May contain inaccuracies
⚠️
All values, scores, and figures here are computed from your own assumptions and public data, for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice — TreasureX does not recommend buying or selling any security. Results change with your inputs. Please do your own research and use your own judgement before making any investment decision.