$BA BOEING CO — DCF Fair Value, Health Score & Thesis | TreasureX
$BA$173.26 ▲0.4%
The Boeing Company
WHAT THEY DO
Boeing designs and builds commercial jetliners (737, 787, 777), military aircraft and space systems, and provides aftermarket parts and services. It earns money selling aircraft to airlines and governments plus long-term maintenance and defense contracts.
Forward P/E is higher than trailing — the market expects earnings to soften.
CAPEX & R&D — LAST 0 FISCAL YEARS (SEC FILINGS)
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TAM
SIZE
$330B by 2030
CAGR
4%
Global commercial aerospace and defense spend is roughly $300B+ annually, driven by air traffic growth, fleet replacement, and rising defense budgets. Boeing competes in a duopoly for large jets, so share shifts and delivery rates matter more than headline TAM growth.
RISK ASSESSMENT
HIGExecution and quality risk: production rate caps, certification delays, and safety incidents can stall deliveries and cash flow.
MEDBalance sheet leverage and thin margins leave little cushion if deliveries slip or defense charges recur.
LOWLong-cycle order book provides multi-year revenue visibility even in a downturn.
🐂 BULL
Delivery ramp on the 737 MAX and 787 plus services growth could drive a sharp margin and free-cash-flow recovery from depressed levels. A duopoly position and huge backlog give Boeing pricing power once execution stabilizes.
🐻 BEAR
Margins near zero, negative EV/EBITDA, and heavy debt mean the equity is highly sensitive to any new production or certification setback. At 60x trailing earnings, the stock already prices in a recovery that has repeatedly slipped.
EARNINGS
EPS · Q3 2026
Miss
REVENUE
Beat ✓
MANAGEMENT TONE
BearishBullish
🔗 IMPACT ON YOUR THESIS
737 MAX and 787 delivery ramp restores cash flow
Watch→Watch
Deliveries improved but rate increases remain constrained by supply chain and regulatory oversight.
Defense segment stabilizes after fixed-price contract losses
Watch→Watch
New charges were smaller but the segment is still not reliably profitable.
Services remained the most consistent profit contributor.
AI-powered data, computed by TreasureX · May contain inaccuracies
⚠️
All values, scores, and figures here are computed from your own assumptions and public data, for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice — TreasureX does not recommend buying or selling any security. Results change with your inputs. Please do your own research and use your own judgement before making any investment decision.