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$COST$1065.59 ▲1.8%
Costco Wholesale Corporation
WHAT THEY DO
Costco runs membership-only warehouse clubs where members pay an annual fee to buy groceries, electronics, household goods and private-label Kirkland Signature products in bulk at low markups. It makes most of its operating profit from membership fees, with thin margins on the merchandise it sells.
💎 CONVERGENCE PLAY — in 2 themes
Consumer Staples DefensivenessMembership/Subscription EconomicsRetail Traffic & Private Label
PRICE
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REVENUE MIX
Merchandise - Food & Sundries40%
Merchandise - Non-Foods35%
Merchandise - Fresh Food20%
Membership Fees5%
COST
COGS87%
SG&A9%
Op Margin4%
FINANCIAL HEALTH
Reported through Aug 30, 2026
Figures are trailing twelve months (TTM) unless marked otherwise.
REVENUE
$303.2B
Growth
11%
QTR YOY
Gross M.
13%
P/E
51.3
EV/EBITDA
32.5
Net M.
3%
FCF M.
2%
D/E
0.21
LATEST QTR
Op M.
4%
PLUG INTO YOUR DCF
Historical growth
9.1%
Analyst 5y growth
—
Forward P/E
42.6
PEG ratio
5.20
Trailing EPS
$20.80
Forward EPS
$25.00
Multiple compressing
Forward P/E is lower than trailing — earnings are expected to grow into the price.
CAPEX & R&D — LAST 0 FISCAL YEARS (SEC FILINGS)
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TAM
SIZE
$1.5T global grocery & warehouse retail by 2030
CAGR
4%
Costco competes in the enormous global grocery and general-merchandise retail market, which grows roughly in line with GDP plus inflation. Growth comes from new warehouse openings, international expansion and membership fee increases rather than from category creation, so the addressable market is huge but the share-gain runway is gradual.
RISK ASSESSMENT
HIGValuation risk: at ~48x trailing earnings and ~30x EV/EBITDA, the stock prices in years of steady compounding; any slowdown or multiple compression could cause significant downside.
MEDThin merchandise margins mean profitability depends heavily on membership renewal rates and fee levels; a consumer pullback or renewal weakness would hit operating profit disproportionately.
LOWExecution risk on new warehouse openings and international expansion, plus tariff and input-cost pressure on imported goods.
🐂 BULL
Costco's membership model produces highly recurring, high-return revenue with exceptional renewal rates, and 11% revenue growth plus international whitespace supports continued mid-to-high single-digit compounding. A premium multiple has historically been justified by that consistency.
🐻 BEAR
At ~48x earnings and ~30x EV/EBITDA, the market already pays for flawless execution; with only 4% operating margins and 3% net margins, modest deceleration or a membership-fee disappointment could compress the multiple sharply. Fair value near $880 implies double-digit downside from current levels.
EARNINGS
EPS · Q4 2026
Beat ✓
REVENUE
Beat ✓
MANAGEMENT TONE
BearishBullish
🔗 IMPACT ON YOUR THESIS
Membership fee economics drive high-margin, recurring profit
On Track→On Track
Renewal rates held firm, supporting fee income
Steady 11% revenue growth and international warehouse expansion
On Track→On Track
Revenue growth of 11% YoY confirmed momentum
Premium valuation leaves little margin for error
Watch→Watch
Multiple remains elevated despite solid results
AI-powered data, computed by TreasureX · May contain inaccuracies
⚠️
All values, scores, and figures here are computed from your own assumptions and public data, for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice — TreasureX does not recommend buying or selling any security. Results change with your inputs. Please do your own research and use your own judgement before making any investment decision.