$DIS Walt Disney Co — DCF Fair Value, Health Score & Thesis | TreasureX
$DIS$116.76 ▼0.4%
The Walt Disney Company
WHAT THEY DO
Disney runs theme parks and cruise ships, makes and streams movies and TV shows through Disney+, Hulu and ESPN, and licenses its characters and brands across consumer products. It earns money from park tickets and hotels, streaming subscriptions and advertising, theatrical box office, and TV affiliate fees.
Forward P/E is lower than trailing — earnings are expected to grow into the price.
CAPEX & R&D — LAST 0 FISCAL YEARS (SEC FILINGS)
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TAM
SIZE
$900B by 2030
CAGR
6%
Disney competes across global media and entertainment, streaming, and experiential leisure, a combined pool of roughly $900B growing mid-single digits. Streaming is maturing into a profit-and-advertising game while parks and cruises remain a durable high-margin cash engine tied to global travel demand.
RISK ASSESSMENT
HIGParks and cruise demand is cyclical and sensitive to consumer spending, travel costs and macro shocks; a downturn would hit the highest-margin segment.
MEDCord-cutting keeps eroding linear TV and affiliate fee profits faster than streaming and advertising can fully offset.
LOWContent slate underperformance or franchise fatigue could pressure studio and consumer products results.
🐂 BULL
Streaming has crossed into consistent profitability while parks and cruises generate strong cash flow, and at 22.8x earnings with an 11.4x EV/EBITDA the market is not paying much for the ESPN direct-to-consumer and IP monetization upside.
🐻 BEAR
Linear TV profits are declining structurally, parks growth is slowing against tough comparisons, and content spend stays high, so earnings growth may stall near 7% and leave the stock range-bound.
EARNINGS
EPS · Q4 2025
Beat ✓
REVENUE
Miss
MANAGEMENT TONE
BearishBullish
🔗 IMPACT ON YOUR THESIS
Streaming reaches durable profitability and margins expand
Watch→On Track
Streaming segment posted another profitable quarter with margin expansion
Parks and cruises sustain high-margin cash generation
On Track→On Track
Experiences revenue grew but at a slower pace, margins held
ESPN direct-to-consumer launch scales without cannibalizing affiliate fees
Watch→Watch
DTC launch on track; affiliate fee pressure still to be proven
AI-powered data, computed by TreasureX · May contain inaccuracies
⚠️
All values, scores, and figures here are computed from your own assumptions and public data, for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice — TreasureX does not recommend buying or selling any security. Results change with your inputs. Please do your own research and use your own judgement before making any investment decision.