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$LLY$1364.73 ▼3.8%
Eli Lilly and Company
WHAT THEY DO
Eli Lilly develops and sells prescription medicines, led by its GLP-1 drugs for diabetes and obesity (Mounjaro, Zepbound) plus cancer, immunology and neuroscience products. It makes money by selling branded drugs globally, mostly in the US.
💎 CONVERGENCE PLAY — in 3 themes
GLP-1 ObesityMetabolic HealthBiotech Innovation
PRICE
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REVENUE MIX
Diabetes/GLP-1 (Mounjaro, Trulicity)45%
Obesity (Zepbound)22%
Oncology13%
Immunology11%
Neuroscience/Other9%
COST
COGS17%
R&D19%
SG&A10%
Op Margin54%
FINANCIAL HEALTH
Reported through Sep 30, 2026
Figures are trailing twelve months (TTM) unless marked otherwise.
REVENUE
$86.5B
Growth
39%
QTR YOY
Gross M.
84%
P/E
44.3
EV/EBITDA
27.1
Net M.
32%
FCF M.
11%
D/E
1.6
LATEST QTR
Op M.
54%
PLUG INTO YOUR DCF
Historical growth
21.6%
Analyst 5y growth
—
Forward P/E
27.2
PEG ratio
1.30
Trailing EPS
$30.80
Forward EPS
$50.20
Multiple compressing
Forward P/E is lower than trailing — earnings are expected to grow into the price.
CAPEX & R&D — LAST 0 FISCAL YEARS (SEC FILINGS)
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TAM
SIZE
$150B+ obesity/diabetes by 2030
CAGR
20%
The GLP-1 market for obesity and diabetes could exceed $150B by 2030 as penetration stays low and oral formulations expand access. Lilly is a top-two player alongside Novo Nordisk, with pricing, supply and payer coverage the key swing factors.
RISK ASSESSMENT
HIGGLP-1 pricing pressure and payer pushback could compress margins as competition and oral entrants arrive
MEDSupply/manufacturing scale-up and pipeline concentration in incretins create execution risk
LOWPatent cliffs on legacy products and policy/drug-pricing reform
🐂 BULL
Lilly is the fastest-growing large-cap pharma with 48% revenue growth, 83% gross margins and dominant GLP-1 franchises that can compound for years as obesity penetration rises.
🐻 BEAR
At 46x earnings and 30x EBITDA, the stock already prices in years of hypergrowth; any pricing pressure, supply hiccup or competitive share loss could trigger sharp multiple compression.
EARNINGS
EPS · Q3 2026
Beat ✓
REVENUE
Beat ✓
MANAGEMENT TONE
BearishBullish
🔗 IMPACT ON YOUR THESIS
GLP-1 franchise (Mounjaro/Zepbound) drives multi-year revenue compounding
On Track→On Track
Strong GLP-1 sales growth confirmed demand trajectory
Manufacturing capacity scale-up to meet demand
Watch→On Track
Management signaled supply expansion on track
AI-powered data, computed by TreasureX · May contain inaccuracies
⚠️
All values, scores, and figures here are computed from your own assumptions and public data, for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice — TreasureX does not recommend buying or selling any security. Results change with your inputs. Please do your own research and use your own judgement before making any investment decision.