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$MSFT$535.93 ▼3.6%
Microsoft Corporation
WHAT THEY DO
Microsoft sells software and cloud services: Windows, Office/Microsoft 365, Azure cloud computing, Dynamics, LinkedIn, and gaming (Xbox, Game Pass, Activision). It makes money from subscriptions, cloud consumption fees, licenses, advertising, and hardware.
💎 CONVERGENCE PLAY — in 3 themes
Cloud AI InfrastructureEnterprise Copilot/Edge AIAI Agents
PRICE
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REVENUE MIX
Intelligent Cloud (Azure, Server)43%
Productivity & Business Processes (M365, LinkedIn, Dynamics)32%
More Personal Computing (Windows, Gaming, Search)25%
COST
COGS32%
R&D12%
SG&A11%
Op Margin50%
FINANCIAL HEALTH
Reported through Sep 30, 2026
Figures are trailing twelve months (TTM) unless marked otherwise.
REVENUE
$346.4B
Growth
19%
QTR YOY
Gross M.
68%
P/E
28
EV/EBITDA
19.7
Net M.
41%
FCF M.
1%
D/E
0.24
LATEST QTR
Op M.
50%
PLUG INTO YOUR DCF
Historical growth
14.6%
Analyst 5y growth
—
Forward P/E
22.2
PEG ratio
1.60
Trailing EPS
$19.20
Forward EPS
$24.20
Multiple compressing
Forward P/E is lower than trailing — earnings are expected to grow into the price.
CAPEX & R&D — LAST 0 FISCAL YEARS (SEC FILINGS)
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TAM
SIZE
$1.2T by 2030
CAGR
12%
Cloud infrastructure, AI platform services, and enterprise software represent a combined TAM exceeding $1T by 2030 as AI workloads migrate to hyperscale clouds. Microsoft's Azure, Copilot, and agentic AI stack position it to capture a disproportionate share of enterprise AI spend.
RISK ASSESSMENT
HIGMassive AI capex ($80B+/yr) may compress free cash flow and returns if AI monetization lags spending
MEDRegulatory scrutiny on bundling (Teams, Copilot) and cloud licensing in EU/US could constrain pricing power
LOWPC/gaming hardware cyclicality and Activision integration execution risk
🐂 BULL
Azure AI growth and Copilot monetization across 400M+ M365 seats create a durable double-digit earnings compounder with best-in-class 45% operating margins.
🐻 BEAR
At 29.7x trailing earnings and 20.7x EV/EBITDA, the stock prices in flawless AI execution while capex intensity threatens FCF conversion and multiple compression.
EARNINGS
EPS · Q1 FY2026
Beat ✓
REVENUE
Beat ✓
MANAGEMENT TONE
BearishBullish
🔗 IMPACT ON YOUR THESIS
Azure AI revenue acceleration sustains 30%+ cloud growth
On Track→On Track
Azure growth beat guidance; AI services contributed 12pts to growth
Copilot attach rate drives M365 ARPU expansion
Watch→On Track
Copilot seats surpassed 100M, commercial bookings up 25%
Capex discipline and FCF inflection
Watch→Watch
Capex guided higher to $85B+ for FY26, FCF conversion still pressured
AI-powered data, computed by TreasureX · May contain inaccuracies
⚠️
All values, scores, and figures here are computed from your own assumptions and public data, for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice — TreasureX does not recommend buying or selling any security. Results change with your inputs. Please do your own research and use your own judgement before making any investment decision.