WHAT THEY DO
Nike designs and sells athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under brands including Nike, Jordan, and Converse. It makes money selling through its own stores and websites plus thousands of wholesale retailers worldwide.
💎 CONVERGENCE PLAY — in 2 themes
Consumer RecoveryAthletic ApparelChina Reopening
FINANCIAL HEALTH
Reported through Aug 31, 2026
Figures are trailing twelve months (TTM) unless marked otherwise.
PLUG INTO YOUR DCF
Use in DCF →Multiple expanding
Forward P/E is higher than trailing — the market expects earnings to soften.
CAPEX & R&D — LAST 0 FISCAL YEARS (SEC FILINGS)
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TAM
Global athletic footwear and apparel is a roughly $400B market growing mid-single digits, driven by sports participation, wellness trends, and emerging-market middle-class growth. Nike is the largest player but faces rising competition from On, Hoka, and Adidas.
RISK ASSESSMENT
HIGMarket share loss to fast-growing challengers (On, Hoka, New Balance) and Adidas in running and lifestyle categories.
MEDChina and Greater China demand weakness plus tariff and trade policy uncertainty pressuring margins.
LOWFX headwinds and inventory markdown risk as the company resets wholesale distribution.
🐂 BULL
Nike is a dominant global brand trading at a depressed multiple near trough earnings; a turnaround in product innovation and wholesale reset could drive meaningful margin recovery and multiple re-rating.
🐻 BEAR
Revenue has declined for multiple years, gross margin is compressing, and nimble competitors are taking share; the brand may need a longer, costlier reset than the market expects.
EARNINGS
MANAGEMENT TONE
BearishBullish
🔗 IMPACT ON YOUR THESIS
Brand turnaround and product innovation cycleWatch→Watch
New running silhouettes gaining traction but too early to call inflection
Wholesale distribution reset and channel mixWatch→Watch
Wholesale orders stabilizing but direct-to-consumer still soft
Gross margin recovery toward high-40sWatch→Watch
Margins pressured by markdowns and tariffs, modest improvement expected
Valuation near multi-year lows offers margin of safetyOn Track→On Track
Stock remains cheap on trough earnings; risk/reward intact